What separates an honest campaign teardown from a confident story?

Separate what is visible from what is inferred. You can describe the opening, product action, posting pattern and observed totals. You may not know the team’s objective, paid support, audience history or revenue outcome.

Write alternative explanations where they matter and make the next experiment explicit. A useful teardown teaches the reader how to investigate a mechanism. It does not need an invented behind-the-scenes narrative to sound authoritative. If you obtained additional facts from the team, identify that source and its scope.